Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

What you will learn:

• However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

• We estimate that the blockade of Ukraine’s ports has reduced the country’s GDP by at least 7.3% compared to pre-war levels.

• In a downside scenario where the deal collapses or has only a limited effect, grain exports still gradually increase but only to about 2.8mt per month.