Global scenarios: Gas rationing and stagflation
In recent months the risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation. We explore these risks, drawing on key insights from our latest global scenarios. Our focus is the potential fall-out from rationing of natural gas in Europe, as well as the implications of persistently elevated inflation expectations and policy rates.
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Jamie Thompson
Head of Macro Scenarios
+44 (0) 203 910 8030
Jamie Thompson
Head of Macro Scenarios
London, United Kingdom
Jamie is Head of Macro Scenarios. He leads the production of macro-economic scenarios for the Global Scenario Service and is responsible for identifying and writing about key risks to the global economy.
Jamie joined Oxford Economics from the Bank of England, where he worked for 17 years on a range of monetary and financial stability issues to support both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Policy Committee. Most recently, Editor of the Bank’s Financial Stability Report and Financial Stability Papers series, Jamie has written and edited extensively for the Bank’s flagship publications, including the Inflation Report.
Alex Mackle
Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead
+1 (646) 291 2504
Alex Mackle
Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead
New York, United States
Alex Mackle is a Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead in the US Macro Consulting team based in New York. Alex focuses on scenarios and stress testing, as well as CECL/IFRS9 scenarios. He also frequently gives training sessions on the Global Economic Model, focusing on scenarios and stress testing capabilities.
Prior to joining the US Macro Consulting team in 2017, Alex worked in the Scenarios team in London, contributing to the Global Scenario Service and various stress testing exercises. He has also worked on several modelling projects, including a macro model for the Central Bank of Oman.
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