Blog | 23 Aug 2023
Friend or foe? Foreign policy takes centre stage
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Louw-Nel-1.png)
Louw Nel
Senior Political Analyst, OE Africa
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Untitled-design-20-375x263.png)
South Africa’s preparations for the 15th Brics Summit in August, which the country is hosting, have been overshadowed by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the warrant of arrest it issued for one of the expected attendees, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, on charges of war crimes. Domestic and foreign critics have accused Pretoria of being much too cosy with Moscow, notwithstanding official assurances that South Africa is neutral in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and Washington’s ambassador to the country caused a diplomatic storm in May when he claimed that South Africa had supplied Russia with weapons. Denials have since given way to a diplomatic charm offensive with South African officials trying to temper the concerns of the country’s Western partners, who account for much of its trade, and its Brics partners, who are poised to welcome new members.
A peace initiative spearheaded by President Cyril Ramaphosa saw several heads of state travel with him to Ukraine and Russia on a ‘peace mission’ in June, but the initiative was undermined by lukewarm support, logistical issues, and a generally cold reception by the warring sides. Mr Ramaphosa will be joining numerous African heads of state at the upcoming Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg before returning home to lay out the red carpet for visiting Brics heads of state (with the exception of Mr Putin, who will not be attending).
Deputy President Paul Mashatile finds himself in the public spotlight, but not for the reasons he would have hoped. The man who deputises for Mr Ramaphosa at the Union Building but also at the headquarters of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has had his lavish lifestyle choices – and past – scrutinised. The question on everyone’s lips seems to be: who is Paul Mashatile, the man who would be president?
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screenshot-2023-08-23-105945-1.png)
To download the full political report click below.
Author
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Louw-Nel-1.png)
Louw Nel
Senior Political Analyst, OE Africa
+27 (0) 21 863 6200
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Louw-Nel-1.png)
Louw Nel
Senior Political Analyst, OE Africa
Cape Town, South Africa
Louw is the senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. He joined the company in 2020 after five years with South Africa’s official opposition party, serving as its operations director at Parliament. He has an obsessive relationship with African politics and covers South Africa and several other countries.
Tags:
You may be interested in
![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Untitled-design-47-375x263.png)
Post
Kenya: Populism to austerity, Ruto’s struggle to balance the budget
Kenya has been facing a tumultuous month from an economic and political perspective, but our baseline scenario assumes that the East African nation is not headed towards a fiscal cliff.
Find Out More![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Untitled-design-16-375x263.png)
Post
The Malaria ‘Dividend’: Why Investing In Malaria Elimination Creates Returns For All
Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK) commissioned Oxford Economics Africa to assess the future economic impact of malaria on the countries most exposed to the disease, as well as at the Africa and global levels, while also considering the UK’s relationship with the most affected countries and the benefits arising from localised research and development (R&D) and manufacturing.
Find Out More![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Untitled-design-97-375x263.png)
Post
Easter Egg-onomics
The cause of Easter egg inflation of 50% or more this year is largely explained in the latest paper from our Africa team on one of the key countries at the start of the supply chain, those producing the raw ingredient.
Find Out More![](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Untitled-design-92-375x263.png)
Post
Africa: Radical Faye looks strong in Senegal’s presidential election
The first round of Senegal's presidential election will take place on Sunday, March 24. The race is unpredictable, given the dramatic backdrop to it. In this Research Briefing, we set out the main dynamics relating to the election and refresh our political scenarios.
Find Out More