This Quarter’s Global Risk Scenarios

Central banks signal victory over inflation

Policy easing bolsters the global economy as inflation returns to target, central bank caution fades, and policy shifts to a stance more supportive of growth.

Middle East escalation

Global growth falters as energy supply disruption triggers an oil price spike, stock markets weaken, and policy rates rise further amid higher near-term inflation.

Higher for longer interest rates

High interest rates weigh on stock markets and house prices, as central banks are challenged by the inflationary fall-out from persistent shipping disruption.

Increased China-Taiwan tensions

Tensions weigh persistently on the global economy as Taiwan and its allies raise trade and technological barriers against China and investor sentiment worsen amid conflict fears.