South Africa: Elections 2024 | Scenarios side by side
This Research Briefing summarises our four scenarios for the general election that will take place in South Africa on May 29, and compares the macroeconomic forecasts associated with them.
What you will learn:
- In the baseline scenario, ‘ANC & friends’, there is progress on SOE reform but power cuts remain a problem
- In ‘ANC & EFF’, the government gives in to statist impulses and the relationship with the private sector becomes more adversarial
- In ‘ANC & DA’, the government recognises the need to involve South Africa’s private sector and unlock investment
Tags:
Related Posts
Post
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘Moonshot’ election scenario
This is the last of the four Research Briefings on scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the centre-right opposition to the ANC, united in a coalition around the DA, secures enough votes to form a majority.
Find Out More
Post
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & DA’ election scenario
This Research Briefing details the third of our four scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the African National Congress (ANC), having won only 40% of the vote, decides to make a deal with the party that has been the official opposition for 25 years: the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA).
Find Out More
Post
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & friends’ election scenario
This Research Briefing sets out the first of four scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the ANC wins over 46% of the vote share at the national level, and forms a government by working with small, constituency-based parties.
Find Out More
Post
South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & EFF’ election scenario
This briefing sets out the second of our four scenarios for South Africa's general election: the ANC wins only 40% of the vote and makes a coalition deal with the radical leftists of the EFF.
Find Out More