The Venezuelan presidential election offers few upsides

Sunday’s presidential election presents limited upside scenarios for the Venezuelan economy. Our baseline is for President Nicolás Maduro to remain in power and current sanctions to be maintained.

What you will learn:

• A continuation of Maduro’s leadership is not inevitable and a second upside is one of a transition of power.
• Opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia has a commanding lead in the polls and a democratic transition or power-sharing deal would bring sanction relief and an economic upturn.
• But transforming corrupt and mis-managed institutions could be a sticking point.