Forecasting Economic Outcomes from the US Election

As the US election approaches, the potential economic outcomes are on everyone’s mind. Regardless of the result, the economy is poised for significant changes driven by the policy decisions of the next president and Congress. From tax cuts and spending adjustments to tariffs and trade relations, these changes will have far-reaching impacts.

Key Scenarios Explored:

• Limited Trump Scenario (30%): Potential effects of extending Trump tax cuts, immigration restrictions, raising defence spending, and imposing targeted tariffs on imports from China and the EU.
• Full-Blown Trump Scenario (15% odds): More aggressive tax cuts, substantial increases in spending, and blanket tariffs on imports from China and other trading partners.
• Trump & Divided Government (5%): A mix of tax cuts and moderate spending changes and their economic implications.
• Harris & Divided Government (40%): A bare-bones extension of the expiring Trump tax cuts, and restraint in federal discretionary spending.
• Harris & Democratic Congress (10%): Estimated effects of federal investments in housing, childcare, and education and higher taxes on corporations and high earners.

Each of these scenarios offers a unique perspective on how the economy could evolve, affecting growth, inflation, and markets. To stay informed and ready for what’s ahead, download our detailed executive summary that delves into these possible futures shaped by the upcoming US election.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.