Japan’s neutral interest rate is rising, but not by much
Date: 19 September
After the BoJ’s surprise rate hike in July, the key question now is how far the bank will go. To help answer this, we have estimated the long-run Japan neutral interest rate. We discuss how the secular forces are dragging down the neutral rate, despite some pick-up recently. We use this to shine a light on the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting.
![Daniel Harenberg](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Daniel-Harenberg.png)
Daniel Harenberg
Lead Economist, Global Macro
+49 69 80883012
![Daniel Harenberg](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Daniel-Harenberg.png)
Daniel Harenberg
Lead Economist, Global Macro
Frankfurt, Germany
Daniel is a Lead Economist in Oxford Economics’ Global Team. Based in our Frankfurt office, he works on long-term, structural economic questions and provides coverage for the Netherlands. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Daniel was a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic Research of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and at the Research Center SAFE of Goethe University in Frankfurt. Daniel received his PhD in economics from the University of Mannheim and has published in leading international journals such as the International Economic Review and Quantitative Economics.
![Norihiro-Yamaguchi](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Norihiro-Yamaguchi.png)
Norihiro Yamaguchi
Senior Economist
+81 (0) 3 4588 2797
![Norihiro-Yamaguchi](https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Norihiro-Yamaguchi.png)
Norihiro Yamaguchi
Senior Economist
Tokyo, Japan
Norihiro is a Senior Economist at Oxford Economics. Based in Tokyo, he is engaged in forecasting and analysing Japanese and APAC economy. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2021, he worked as an economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance in Tokyo for 9 years, covering Japan’s economy, European economy, and global financial markets. During his time at Meiji Yasuda, he has written quarterly economic outlook, and thematic reports on macroeconomic developments and insurance capital regulations. He holds a Master’s degree in public policy from the University of Chicago in the United States, and a Bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo.
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