What does Trump 2.0 mean for construction globally?
What you will learn:
- The election of Donald Trump will affect global construction activity through fiscal stimulus, curbed immigration, increased tariffs, and policy decisions. Our macroeconomic baseline view has shifted to our ‘limited Trump’ scenario, although our ‘full-blown Trump’ scenario remains a possibility if specific guideposts are met.
- US fiscal expansion is likely to support privately funded construction activity in the near-term, but will result in slower monetary loosening in 2026. Immigration cuts, however, will reduce long-term demand for housing, and risk exasperating construction labour shortages in the US.
- The impact of tariffs is unclear. We expect them to boost manufacturing and warehousing investment in ASEAN countries, while the impact in the US depends on the extent of retaliatory tariffs from other countries. China may continue to reroute US bound exports to other countries – but there could be a reduction in Belt and Road projects.
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