Global Scenarios Service – Heightened Tensions

This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions, structural weakness in the Chinese economy, the stance of monetary and fiscal policy, and financial market conditions.

This Quarter’s Risk Scenarios are:

• Heightened tensions. The US imposes higher tariffs on trading partners against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions.
• Market Correction. Financial conditions tighten as higher yields push up lending rates and weigh on stock markets.
• Weaker China. Property market downturn in China spills over to close trading partners and global equity and commodity markets.
• Government-led upturn. The global economy strengthens amid stimulus and structural reform in China and greater defence spending in the EU.

To learn how these scenarios impact key global economic indicators, download the executive summary.