Research Briefing | Mar 7, 2025

Taking stock of this week’s twists and turns in US tariff policy

A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week. Though the initial duties on March 4 were eventually watered down, tariff rates on Canada and Mexico have still ended up at double-digit levels, a substantial increase from before.

What you will learn:

  • For the next month, there will be an exemption for imports that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Compliance with the USMCA varies by product.
  • From the perspective of the consumer, they can temporarily breathe a sigh of relief that food and vehicle imports from North America are largely USMCA-compliant.
  • The March baseline assumes that 25% tariffs will get reimposed next month on Canada and Mexico, with a lower 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a blanket exemption for the transportation equipment sector.

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