US Recession Monitor – Despite rising odds, no slump in sight

President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3. It appears that Canada and Mexico will be exempt until the US government can find a way to identify non-US content in autos and auto parts coming from its neighboring countries.

What you will learn:

• It’s noteworthy that noncompliant United State-Mexico-Canada trade goods are being tariffed at 25% this month.
• Japan, South Korea, and the European Union will be impacted immediately by the auto tariffs. We will wait to see if there are retaliatory measure taken.
• The auto tariffs add upside risk to our inflation forecast for this year, but the scale of increase in final consumer prices will be much smaller than imposed tariff rates.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.