China: Rethinking Tariff Risks and Macro Implications

Date: 11 April

While the direct macro effects of new (and potential) US tariffs could prove manageable for an economy with China’s fiscal resources, Beijing’s policy toolkit in response to rising tariff risks is also much bigger this time around, creating an additional source of uncertainty to the outlook. We dive into the range of possible retaliatory responses from China to ongoing trade tensions, the delicate balancing act between managing strategic interests and domestic economic headwinds, and their implications for our China forecast both in the short and medium terms.

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Louise Loo

Lead Economist

+65 6850 0126

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Louise Loo

Lead Economist

Singapore

Louise Loo joined Oxford Economics in 2022, with a focus on Greater China. Prior to OE, she was a senior economist at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. At Goldman Sachs, she was also an advisor to China MoF with regards to its sovereign credit rating. Louise is originally from Malaysia and has earned Economics and public policy degrees with Sheffield University and Columbia University.