The US consumer in 2025

Alex Mackle is a Corporate Advisory Engagement Lead in the US Macro Consulting team based in New York. Alex focuses on scenarios and stress testing, as well as CECL/IFRS9 scenarios. He also frequently gives training sessions on the Global Economic Model, focusing on scenarios and stress testing capabilities.

Prior to joining the US Macro Consulting team in 2017, Alex worked in the Scenarios team in London, contributing to the Global Scenario Service and various stress testing exercises. He has also worked on several modelling projects, including a macro model for the Central Bank of Oman.

As a senior economist at Oxford Economics, Barbara brings a seasoned approach to the study of US cities. She works in Oxford Economics’ division of Cities and Regions analysis where she leads in writing reports on US metros. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, she worked six years for Moody’s Analytics REIS where she did similar work and wrote a number of white papers covering metro-level analyses including the Impact of the Tax and Jobs Act on Commercial Real Estate; Amazon HQ2, a Scoring Analysis; and the Economics of College Towns. Barbara’s work is frequently cited by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Crains New York Business and numerous other publications.

Prior to working at Moody’s, Barbara worked more than 20 years at various commercial real estate firms including Jones Lang LaSalle and Eastern Consolidated where she focused on writing market reports and white papers.

Barbara holds a bachelor’s in business administration from the University of Notre Dame and is a Ph. D. candidate in Economics from New York University.

Michael Pearce is the Deputy Chief US Economist based in New York City, sharing responsibility for forecasting the US economy and monetary policy. He has a particular focus on the US consumer and inflation. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael worked for the Treasury in the UK, and was a senior member of the US economics team at Capital Economics for more than a decade, and he lived and worked in the UK, US, and Switzerland during that time. He has a masters degree in economic history from the London School of Economics, and a bachelors degree in economics from University College London.