Why global demographics are not inflationary
Will the ageing of societies soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates, as argued prominently by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan? We review their argument and show that it relies on extreme or flawed assumptions that when combined produce a misleading picture. Indeed, our in-depth modelling suggest the opposite: ageing societies will keep inflation and interest rates low for decades.
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Ben May
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May
Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May |Director of Global Macroeconomic Research
Ben May is a Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics and is involved in the production and presentation of the company’s global macroeconomic views, with a leading role in our coverage of the advanced economies. Ben joined Oxford Economics in April 2014. He has over 15 years’ experience as a macro economist in the public and private sector and has over a decade’s expertise covering the Eurozone economy. Before joining the Global Macro team, Ben worked on the Eurozone team at Oxford Economics. In addition to his working covering broad Eurozone issues he was also responsible for research on the ECB and Germany.
Daniel Harenberg
Lead Economist
Daniel Harenberg
Lead Economist
Daniel Harenberg | Lead Economist
Daniel is a Lead Economist working in Oxford Economics’ Global Team. Based in our Frankfurt office, he works on long-term, structural economic questions and provides coverage for the Netherlands. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Daniel spent five years as a post-doctoral research fellow at the Center for Economic Research of ETH Zurich in Switzerland and at the Research Center SAFE of Goethe University in Frankfurt, where he used computationally intensive DSGE models to study investment, capital markets, and model uncertainty.
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