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Webinar
Japan’s neutral interest rate is rising, but not by much

with Daniel Harenberg and Norihiro Yamaguchi | Online | September 19, 2024

After the BoJ’s surprise rate hike in July, the key question now is how far the bank will go. To help answer this, we have estimated the long-run Japan neutral interest rate. We discuss how the secular forces are dragging down the neutral rate, despite some pick-up recently. We use this to shine a light on the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting.

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Webinar
The neutral rate has risen, but by less than most think

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | November 20, 2023

When will US policy rates start to fall, and how far? To help answer this, we have updated our estimates of the long-run US neutral interest rate. We discuss the extent to which the neutral rate has shifted due to fundamental structural forces and critically examine claims that the world has entered a period of perpetually high interest rates.

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