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Webinar
What Mexico’s election results means for our outlook

with Joan Domene and Mauricio Monge | Online | June 12, 2024

We examine what Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election means for the short- and medium-term outlook. Our outlook already accounted for a continuation of AMLO’s policies under Sheinbaum, but a likely supermajority in Congress has revived concerns of a further deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals what will offset optimism around nearshoring benefits. The new administration is unlikely to alter the course of the economy for 2024, but downside risks for 2025 are growing especially due to the uncertain outcome of the US elections.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Trump 2.0

with Jamie Thompson, Daniel Moseley and Morgan Ansell | Online | June 10, 2024

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, focusing in particular on the implications of a Trump presidency for the global economy.

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Webinar
Economics of a second Trump presidency

with Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros | Online | April 29, 2024

Continuing our series of analyses on the 2024 election, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second Donald Trump presidency. If the former president wins on Election Day, he will most likely return to the White House with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Assuming full Republican control of government after the 2024 election, we constructed two scenarios that bookend a range of outcomes for the US economy. This webinar will discuss the results of the Trump scenarios, including for inflation, GDP, monetary policy, trade and immigration.

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Webinar
The high-stakes election in Africa’s largest democracy

with Pieter Scribante | Online | February 23, 2023

Nigerians are heading to the polls to vote for a new president, the house of representatives, and the senate on February 25, and for their state-wide representatives and governors on March 11. These elections take place under a spectre of record-high inflation, a deepening currency crisis, dissatisfaction with the political establishment, and heightened insecurity. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and set to be replaced. There are three candidates with a realistic path to victory: Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. In this webinar, we explore three scenarios of the potential outcome of the election and discuss the associated policy implications.

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Webinar
Africa: What to expect from elections in 2023

with Pieter Scribante, Louw Nel, Francois Conradie and Zaynab Mohamed | Online | January 31, 2023

Thirteen African countries are scheduled to hold presidential or legislative elections this year. This webinar will focus on the four elections of greatest potential impact: Nigeria, home to the largest population in Africa; Zimbabwe, where the fractious and unloved Zanu-PF has already unleashed violence on its opponents; Gabon, where President Ali Bongo may try (again) to cheat to get a third term; and the DRC, where armed conflict is complicating the already massive task of registering 50 million voters across a territory the size of Western Europe. We will also touch on the elections in Eswatini, Libya, and Madagascar.

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Webinar
Post-elections brief, mapping the way forward for Kenya

with Louw Nel and Shani Smit | Online | August 18, 2022

In this post-election webinar, we will present our outlook on what the new presidency in Kenya means for the future of the economy and democracy in the country. The past decade under Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration has seen fiscal debt and youth unemployment become increasing points of concern in East Africa’s most advanced economy. How the new leader chooses to deal with these issues will be critical in shaping investor sentiment in Kenya. We will also explore the contentious topics of identity politics, corruption, and the rising cost of living.

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