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Webinar
Tariffs to shake up Asia-Pacific’s industrial sectors

with Toby Whittington and Makoto Tsuchiya | Online | March 20, 2025

The industrial outlook for the Asia-Pacific region this year will be mired by tariff barriers, trade uncertainties and structural economic shifts. China is at the forefront of the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, but the impacts will be felt across the region. The realignment of trade flows as firms seek to avoid tariffs on China will create opportunities for some regional players, particularly in the high-tech sector where economies such as Taiwan and Korea have well-established high-end production know-how, while emerging economies in South East Asia are increasingly trying to move up the value chain. This webinar will explore these shifting trade relationships and how they will impact short and medium-term industry trends within APAC.

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Webinar
For Asia, the Trump regime is not just about tariffs

with Arup Raha | Online | February 20, 2025

We are about a month into the Trump presidency and Asia appears to be coping quite well despite the continued looming fear of tariffs. However, the financial markets have been reacting since September of last year, with higher US bond yields and a stronger US dollar. These developments are likely to affect Asian growth prospects and also the ability of policy to respond. We draw out the implications. Plus: Could AI be China’s magic potion out of stagnation?

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Webinar
Growth, Risks and the Return of Chinese Outbound: What does 2025 have in store for APAC Tourism?

with Michael Shoory | Online | February 4, 2025

With inbound tourism well on the way to recovery in APAC, we take a look at the year ahead and discuss what to expect for travel and tourism in the region. This will include expectations for the recovery of Chinese outbound tourism, projections for the performance of different destinations, and a discussion of the economic, political and other risks to the outlook.

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Webinar
Economic key themes of China and India for 2025

with Alexandra Hermann and Betty Wang | Online | December 17, 2024

Increased uncertainty about trade disruptions and the policy mix shape the outlook for 2025 globally. China will likely be at the centre of a possible escalation of the trade war that already started during Trump’s first term. Domestically, China also faces lingering deflationary risks. Authorities have launched short-term policy stimulus, but demand-side reforms like improving social security nets are still lagging. India, meanwhile, with its largely domestically focused economy will likely be less impacted by the new US administration's fiscal and trade policies. Key to watch will be how strong private consumption demand will grow against a backdrop of structurally weak labour markets.

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Webinar
Asia key economic themes for 2025

with Arup Raha | Online | November 26, 2024

We look at the key themes likely to play out in Asian economies over 2025. In particular, we look at the effects of likely US trade and monetary policy. Within Asiam, we discuss how China is likely to responds to a structural domestic slowdown and external headwinds. Lastly, we look at how AI may shape Asia's growth story.

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Webinar
Japan’s neutral interest rate is rising, but not by much

with Daniel Harenberg and Norihiro Yamaguchi | Online | September 19, 2024

After the BoJ’s surprise rate hike in July, the key question now is how far the bank will go. To help answer this, we have estimated the long-run Japan neutral interest rate. We discuss how the secular forces are dragging down the neutral rate, despite some pick-up recently. We use this to shine a light on the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting.

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Webinar
Global AI demand the biggest tailwind to Asian exports

with Betty Wang and Sheana Yue | Online | September 9, 2024

The current artificial intelligence (AI) boom might become the biggest tailwind to Asian exports in 2025. 75% of semiconductor production capacity and supplies of key materials are concentrated in Asia, placing the region at the centre of the AI frenzy. The continued strength of AI-related exports is likely to offset the lack of strong tailwinds elsewhere.

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Webinar
Asian economies face rising risks

with Arup Raha and Adam Samdin | Online | August 26, 2024

Over the last few weeks, Asian financial markets have been more volatile than usual. Part of this volatility has come as markets seem to have rethought their views on US interest rates and the Japanese economy. Market variables have retraced, but the questions still remain about the global economic outlook. We draw out the implications for Asia.

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Webinar
Build-to-rent in Australia: Where to next for the growing sub-sector?

with Michael Dyer and Timothy Hibbert | Online | August 15, 2024

After a strong FY2023 for the Australian build-to-rent sector, the past year has proven more difficult. Financing issues have driven a lull in projects breaking ground with borrowing costs remaining high while institutional investment, particularly from overseas, has been harder to access. Looking beyond these near-term challenges, sector fundamentals are robust. A series of tailwinds are gathering which point to an acceleration in the sector over the back half of the decade as operators move on their announced developments. In this webinar, we will discuss recent events in the market, the overlay of continued action on housing policy, and where we expect the sector will go from here.

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Webinar
Can New Zealand build toward a better economy?

with Ben Udy and April Skinner | Online | May 9, 2024

Growth in New Zealand is slumping and the economy continues to teeter on the edge of a technical recession. Challenges in the constructions sector, particularly residential building, are weighing heavily on growth with construction work done still below its September 2022 peak.

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Webinar
Navigating Australia’s Property Market: Growth and Affordability Insights

with Maree Kilroy | Online | April 18, 2024

Australian house prices have regained momentum in early 2024, signalling a persistent mismatch between demand and supply across various regions and cities. The pass-through of interest rate cuts from late last year has the potential to further accelerate price growth and turnover. However, amidst these developments, the pressing question remains: which market holds the greatest potential for growth near-term?

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Webinar
China’s New Manufacturing Push

with Louise Loo | Online | April 10, 2024

China’s industrial policy has played a pivotal role in its growth strategy over the past few decades. A renewed state-led push into “new industrialisation” and the “new productive forces” has the potential to accelerate the country’s move up the manufacturing value chain, but could also invite greater protectionist backlash and heighten China’s vulnerability to external demand shocks. We discuss these dynamics in greater detail and invite questions from our readers.

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Webinar
Unveiling the key source markets – including China – for APAC tourism destinations

with Federico Chirico and Michael Shoory | Online | April 4, 2024

We will explore growth prospects for key source markets – both established and emerging – for tourists within the APAC region, and the expected destinations of those travellers. As part of this, we will touch on global and regional trends for outbound travel, and consider the latest developments and outlook for the recovery of the Chinese outbound market. This includes the continued importance of China as a driver of demand relative to other growing markets, and the implications for a range of destinations.

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Webinar
A health-check on China’s real estate and construction industries: Are we still on life support?

with Louise Loo, Nicholas Fearnley and April Skinner | Online | April 2, 2024

China’s property downturn continues to weigh on the outlook. Can we be hopeful that the economy will successfully decouple from its old property-led growth model? How much of an offset can state-led construction provide as authorities look to prop the economy up? Join us in a discussion between Louise Loo our China Macro-economist and April Skinner our China Construction economist, as we address some of the FAQs around China’s housing and construction sectors and take a pulse-check on property’s multi-year correction process. Key talking points: How far does China’s real estate downturn have to go? What are the longer term implications for building construction? How much can state-led infrastructure projects prop up the economy? Will the “New Three" Industries keep the economy afloat? Supply chain risks and what this means for costs and construction.

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Webinar
China’s fiscal policy: shifting from local to central

with Louise Loo and Betty Wang | Online | March 22, 2024

1/ Is the official budget enough to help achieve the implied optimistic GDP growth in 2024? 2/ Does the issuance of special treasury bonds suggest a shift of stimulus focus from local governments to the central government? 3/ What could be the potential sectors receiving fiscal support?

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Webinar
Asia’s medium term growth outlook and its implications for major cities

with Arup Raha and Scott McEwan | Online | February 28, 2024

Over the next five years, economic growth across Asia is likely to diverge especially with two of the giants moving in opposite directions; China slowing and India starting to realise its potential. This has implications for how the cities in these two countries are likely to expand. Major cities in southeast Asia area expected to perform relatively well but there are contrasting fortunes elsewhere. For example, in advanced Asia, the major cities of Australia should exhibit an impressive rate of jobs growth. Our expectations for the likes of Melbourne and Perth contrasts starkly with major East Asian cities in Japan and South Korea, where the pressures of ageing populations is dragging on the potential for growth in output and jobs. We present both a top-down medium-term macro outlook and tie that to how major cities in Asia are likely to develop over the next 5 years.

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Webinar
Australian Key Themes in 2024: Growth to slow as policy bites

with Sean Langcake and Ben Udy | Online | January 31, 2024

Australia's economy outperformed expectations for much of 2023, boosted by a surge in population growth. With this dividend to growth set to wane, and policy settings curbing demand growth, the outlook for 2024 is weaker than 2023. We see three key themes as pivotal to next year's outlook.

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Webinar
China in 2024: What will the Year of the Dragon bring?

with Louise Loo | Online | December 11, 2023

We discuss our outlook and macro themes for China in 2024. Without a reopening boost, the economy amid a multi-year credit clean-up process, and persistent regulatory uncertainties onshore, a more tenuous macro environment is likely to necessitate easier-for-longer policy settings.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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