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Webinar
Perspectivas económicas para Europa y España: afrontando un invierno complicado

with Angel Talavera | Online | October 19, 2022

A pesar de que España afronta el invierno con un menor riesgo de escasez energética que otros países europeos, la actividad económica ya está sufriendo las consecuencias de la alta inflación, la debilidad del sector industrial europeo y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras. Analizaremos las perspectivas económicas para la eurozona y para España en un momento en el que la crisis energética y las tensiones geopolíticas continúan dictando el panorama económico.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service: Pathways to a fair transition

with Felicity Hannon, David Winter and Beatrice Tanjangco | Online | October 18, 2022

Climate-related disasters continue to break records and disproportionately impact developing economies. Looking ahead to COP 27 in November, the issues of justice and fairness in the climate transition will be key discussion points. In light of this, Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Service explores a new scenario, Sustainable Development, in which advanced economies and large emitters (e.g., China) take the lead in climate mitigation. The remaining countries wind down their emissions more gradually, while still benefiting from technological spill overs that ensure widespread improvements in energy access, mix, and electrification. These pathways provide developing economies with the leeway to pursue their development agenda without compromising growth or the global transition.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Webinar
Economic woes and travel flows – tourism outlook

with Dave Goodger and Helen McDermott | Online | October 12, 2022

Travel recovery has accelerated throughout 2022, with strong rebounds evident in a wide range of destinations during the northern hemisphere summer months, as travellers have begun to return to more typical activities. However, complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels is not guaranteed. In this session we will explore the impacts of the slower economic activity and rising costs on travel demand and present our latest global outlook.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – August 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | September 30, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the prospect of a recession in Canada and what a recession could look like in today’s unique post-pandemic landscape. Economic momentum is already decelerating, and the Canadian economy is likely in store for a period of very weak growth in the second half of 2022 and 2023. We still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the economy, but the landing strip is very narrow! We're increasingly concerned that overly aggressive monetary policy tightening with highly indebted household and a deepening housing correction could push the economy into recession. A recession isn’t a done deal just yet, but we think chances of a downturn are elevated at 40%.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Navigating the challenging outlook for Asian real estate markets

with Nick Wilson and Innes McFee | Online | September 28, 2022

Intensifying headwinds from more aggressive monetary tightening is impacting the outlook for Asian real estate markets. Additional challenges regarding soaring construction costs, upward pressure on cap rates, and prolonged covid restrictions are adding an additional layer of complexity to the region. Join us as we take a look at various aspects of the investment landscape to identify the forthcoming threats and opportunities.

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Webinar
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?

with Innes McFee, Andrew Goodwin and Javier Corominas | Online | September 27, 2022

Policy announcements are coming thick and fast in the UK at the moment and have been greeted with the most significant sell-off in UK assets in decades. Is this a case of markets overreacting or have the UK public finances been put on an unsustainable footing? Will the Bank of England react to the fall in sterling or are markets setting themselves up to be disappointed? We will set out our views on all these topics and set out the conditions under which we think this volatility will subside.

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Webinar
Positioning for a shallow recession

with Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor | Online | September 26, 2022

We expect Q4 to be as challenging for markets as 2022 has been thus far. In our autumn webinar, our strategists Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor discuss key global macro themes, including, why we believe yields will soon peak even as real rates have risen, why equities are still poised for a turbulent period, and how credit will outperform other risk assets. As we move into 2023 we see increased opportunities for investors as policy differentiation takes hold and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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Webinar
L’Italia tra elezioni, crisi energetica e inflazione

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | September 21, 2022

Con la caduta del Governo Draghi si è aperta una fase di incertezza per l’economia italiana, che deve affrontare un periodo di campagna elettorale mentre la crisi legata al caro energia e all’inflazione inizia ad essere ben visibile per imprese e famiglie. Con una recessione in Italia e nell’Eurozona che prevediamo essere ormai alle porte, la coalizione che uscirà vincitrice dalle urne il 25 Settembre dovrà quindi affrontare da subito delle problematiche importanti, che si vanno a sommare agli impegni legati al PNRR e alle turbolenze da parte dei mercati. Nel corso del nostro webinar cercheremo di analizzare tutte queste tematiche con un approfondimento sui potenziali scenari post voto.

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Webinar
Natural gas prices hit record high – what next?

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | September 21, 2022

Gas prices have hit new records in recent weeks as supply of Russian gas to Europe has been curtailed. We examine our baseline assumptions underpinning our price forecast and the implications for other commodity prices against the backdrop of an already weak macroeconomic environment.

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Webinar
What do we want? Sovereign crisis resolution. When do we want it? Now!

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | September 19, 2022

The biggest wave of sovereign defaults since the 1980s is upon us. Global institutional challenges – in particular the IMFs’ delicate relations with China – may prove to be an obstacle to efficient crisis resolution. We unpick the issues, focusing on our detailed analysis of debt composition in the most stressed economies.

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Webinar
Overdue recovery in city travel and risks of overtourism

with Dave Goodger and Kieran Ferran | Online | September 16, 2022

The start of the recovery in international travel has benefitted a wide range of city destinations in 2022 which typically saw sharper falls in demand during the pandemic. In this webinar we will share the latest trends and our expectations for travel to key destinations identified in our Global City Travel (GCT) database for coming years, including the timing for full recovery to pre-pandemic levels, the latest city rankings and comparison against some notable non-city destinations.

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Webinar
Fed aims to slay the inflation dragon – what will it take?

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | September 15, 2022

The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell has raised the fed funds rate by the fastest pace since the 1980’s when former Chairman Volcker set out to slay the inflation dragon that lingered from the 1970’s. We estimate that Fed still needs to raise the policy rate by another 150bps and expect that to be done by the end of this year. This would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75% - 4%, which should help lead inflation markedly lower by the end of 2023. However, this comes at a cost as the restrictive policy level will tip the economy into a mild recession in H1 2023.

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Webinar
Reeling European energy markets raise risks of industrial recession

with Abby Samp and Max Anderson | Online | September 14, 2022

Global industrial output is expected to slow in 2023 against a backdrop of growing economic headwinds and a rotation in spending away from spending on goods and towards services. An inventory build-up – albeit from a low level – poses a further risk to industrial production if demand falls more than expected, and the energy squeeze in Europe will put pressure on industrial output there. Join Abby Samp and Max Anderson as they discuss the latest update to Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Forecast.

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Webinar
Are we now on the cusp of another global recession?

with Ben May | Online | September 13, 2022

On the face of it, the quarter-on-quarter fall in global GDP in Q2 suggests that the world may be lurching back into recession. In our latest global webinar, we examine whether or not worse is to come in the second half of this year and the extent to which the outlook is likely to improve in 2023.

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Webinar
Digital Transformation in Real Life

with Sundus Alfi , Andrew Tessler and James Lambert | Online | September 12, 2022

It’s a truism that digital technology has become ubiquitous in our daily lives. Yet how often do we stop and think about its broader implications and how we can get a measure of what’s going on. With such rapid change, it’s difficult to take stock. This webinar aims to explore real-life examples of innovative measures and applications of digital technology. Digital technology has helped ensure that we can better understand how to meet healthcare needs. It allows us to understand new ways in which our established institutions like public libraries can grow and change their services. And it offers opportunities for countries to reshape their patterns of growth to adapt to the future. However above all – and some would say ironically – digital transformation is about people. By employing digital tech we can better understand what people want – and don’t want. Removing old constraints frees up their time and choices, allowing for new ways of learning and interacting. And providing better information allows for informed decision-making to chart the future of nations. This session explores these in a lively discussion of three recent case studies undertaken by Oxford Economics global business.

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Webinar
Russian gas exports: the past, the present and the future

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Tatiana Orlova | Online | September 8, 2022

Gazprom, which has drastically reduced gas flow via Nord Stream 1, is seeking EU guarantees that the latter won’t impose sanctions. Such promises may not be forthcoming, however, so Gazprom could stop exporting gas via Nord Stream 1 to Europe in the coming weeks. But Russia is stuck with a pipeline system built to supply Europe. Notwithstanding the present gas war, it's in Russia's interest to continue providing Europe with gas while it builds new pipelines to Asia. Therefore, we see the scope of an easing of the gas crisis in the coming months.

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