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Webinar
Commodities: The Russian invasion and the supply response

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | March 18, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices rocketing, in some cases to all-time record highs. In this webinar we explore the extent to which commodity prices will remain at elevated levels and discuss any potential supply response from outside Russia.

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Webinar
Why global demographics are not inflationary

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | March 17, 2022

Will the ageing of societies soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates, as argued prominently by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan? We review their argument and show that it relies on extreme or flawed assumptions that when combined produce a misleading picture. Indeed, our in-depth modelling suggest the opposite: ageing societies will keep inflation and interest rates low for decades.

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Webinar
When will Chinese outbound travel return to prominence – and who will benefit?

with Dave Goodger and Michael Shoory | Online | March 16, 2022

Chinese borders remain closed to the majority of inbound and outbound travellers, despite many other borders across the world having re-opened. The restrictions on Chinese outbound travel, in particular, is of importance to the Travel & Tourism sector due to the prominence of China as a source market. Prior to the pandemic, China had grown to become the largest source market for international travel spending and was a major source market for destinations around the globe, especially those elsewhere in Asia-Pacific. This webinar will look at how China’s tighter restrictions may limit the travel recovery for many destinations, when we can expect China to return to its pre-pandemic prominence as a source market, and who will benefit the most once Chinese travellers return. We will also illustrate what would be required for destination recovery from other source markets while Chinese travellers remain absent.

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Webinar
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Emerging Markets

with Tatiana Orlova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 11, 2022

We focus on elevated levels of risk, a slowing global economy, and via a detailed assessment of the commodities spike on the terms of trade of 44 EMs. We will assess the extent to which asset markets have appropriately factored in the news across EMs.

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Webinar
Rising in the East: how global industry is shifting towards Asia Pacific?

with Andy Logan, Jeremy Leonard and Emily Gladstone | Online | March 9, 2022

Global industrial production is forecast to shift towards Asia Pacific over the next couple of decades. But the speed of that transformation is predicted to vary across industrial sectors. The webinar will examine the drivers behind this trend and investigate the extent to which this is due to production shrinking in Europe and North America, or just faster growth in the Asia Pacific region.

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Webinar
Air travel recovery to resume in 2022 post-Omicron

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Arnaud Vanolli, IATA and Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA | Online | March 3, 2022

Latest data for 2021 show that recovery on some major international routes was faster than expected towards the end of the year, but before the Omicron wave hit and disrupted activity, with the re-imposition of some travel restrictions.

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Webinar
Eurozone: As Covid concerns fade away, war in Ukraine and inflation fears take over

with Angel Talavera and Oliver Rakau | Online | March 2, 2022

As Covid fears dissipate, geopolitical tensions and inflation risks now dominate the outlook. Russian invasion of Ukraine means a longer period of high energy prices and increased volatility, which will hit the European economy and complicate things even further for the ECB as it attempts to start its process of policy normalisation.

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Webinar
The economic implications of Russia’s full-scale invasion

with Tatiana Orlova and Innes McFee | Online | February 25, 2022

In this webinar, we will assess the implications of the Russian invasion, including via our revised model-based forecast. We will explore the potential impact of higher European gas, oil and food prices over the medium term, as well as more financial market disruption and greater global sanctions on Russia. From an economic perspective, the biggest loser (other than Ukraine) looks set to be Russia. Submit your questions to our economists via the chat panel during an extended Q&A at the end of the session.

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Webinar
Rising risk of a higher inflation ‘regime’

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 17, 2022

We outline why the risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime, featuring inflation at 4% or more in the advanced economies for several years, has increased - and what we now think the probability of that risk is. We examine factors such as monetary growth, supply shocks, the broadness of price pressures, labour market developments and inflation expectations. We also look at some cross-country differences and recent changes in central bank behaviour.

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Webinar
Will overtourism problems return for cities?

with Dave Goodger and Kieran Ferran | Online | February 15, 2022

Prior to the pandemic, overtourism was among the biggest concerns for city destinations. Travel volumes have since fallen sharply but there has also been a clear shift in demand preferences towards more rural or coastal destinations. We will consider the extent to which this may persist in coming years as both leisure and business travel recovers and the implications for major city destinations.

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Webinar
Has Asia’s inflation peaked?

with Priyanka Kishore and Sung-Eun Jung | Online | February 11, 2022

CPI inflation is on a uptrend in Asia, but to a lesser degree than the rest of the world. However, with producer prices continuing to increase at a strong pace, concerns of knock on impact on retail inflation have risen. In this webinar, we investigate the likelihood of PPI to CPI passthrough across Asia and what that implies for our inflation forecasts.

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Webinar
UK Outlook: How many times will the MPC hike in 2022?

with Andrew Goodwin | Online | February 10, 2022

Though the impact of Omicron looks set to be small and short-lived, the UK economy faces strong headwinds from high inflation and tighter fiscal and monetary policy. In this webinar we will consider how these headwinds will impact on the growth outlook and assess whether markets are correct in anticipating a very aggressive policy response from the BoE.

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Webinar
Global construction sector continuing to rebound in 2022

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 8, 2022

Globally, the value of Construction Work Done is continuing to rebound following the Covid disruption, supported by government stimulus which is being targeted in different ways across different countries. The outbreak of the omicron variant and the Evergrande default, however, weigh over the near-term outlook. In this webinar we present our key findings of the distribution and outlook of construction activity across sectors and countries. We will also discuss our plans for the service, including further developments that will be launched over the coming year.

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Webinar
CEE Key Themes 2022 – In for an eventful year

with Tomas Dvorak and Mateusz Urban | Online | February 2, 2022

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic. We expect consumer spending to boost growth in the later part of the year, while industry now appears to have turned the corner and is set for a strong 2022. But the recovery will be uneven, with a variety of downside risks threatening to make it bumpy. In the webinar, we will discuss our outlook for the CEE region, paying particularly close attention to the downside risks: persistently high inflation driven by structural factors, political uncertainty, input shortages and slower supply chain recovery. We will also cover the outlook for monetary and fiscal policies in the CEE, focusing on the hawkish turn of the region’s central banks and the disbursement of the NGEU funds.

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