Events and Webinars

Webinar

US Outlook: Shifting headwinds

with Kathy Bostjancic and Lydia Boussour | Online | April 12, 2022

The US economy faces shifting headwinds - Higher inflation and greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine are overshadowing current concerns about Covid. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.2% this year and slow to 2.0% in 2023, but risks are tilted to the downside given the intensifying inflation shock, increased supply chain stress, a more hawkish Fed, and a large fiscal drag.

Webinar

Ukraine and CEE economies – learning to live with the war and its consequences

with Evghenia Sleptsova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | April 11, 2022

The Ukrainian economy has halved in sized since the Russian invasion. We take stock of the how Ukraine is coping with such unprecedented stress. With exports blocked at sea and sowing season at risk, we also highlight which commodities are of systemic importance globally. We’ll pay particular attention to our analysis of the knock-on effects that underpin our downward revisions to CEE output growth.

Webinar

La guerre Russie-Ukraine, quelles conséquences pour la Présidentielle et l’économie mondiale ?

with Daniela Ordonez and Pierre Delage | Online | April 8, 2022

L’élection présidentielle se profile en pleine incertitude créée par la guerre en Ukraine, et ses conséquences sur les prix des matières premières et le pouvoir d’achat. L’inflation, déjà stimulée par les problèmes de chaines de valeurs et les confinements en Chine, aura un impact sur les votes en avril dans un pays marqué par la crise des gilets jaunes. Quelle économie mondiale nous attend et quel Président pour la France, dans un contexte de ralentissement qui renforce les risques de stagflation et met les banques centrales face à un dilemme cornélien?

Webinar

Late climate action is better than no action

with Felicity Hannon | Online | April 4, 2022

There are some signs that the world is waking up to climate risks and the benefits of greater renewable capacity. In this webinar Felicity Hannon will present Oxford Economics’ new Slow and Constrained scenario in which policymakers accelerate climate action and implement more aggressive policies in 2030. This helps to close the commitment gap and net zero emissions are achieved by 2075. Our analysis shows that the inequitable long-run economic damages from inaction are so great that late climate action is better than no action.

Webinar

US Construction: Tracking large projects in construction spending

with Abby Samp and Peter Colson | Online | April 1, 2022

Our US Construction Forecasting service, provides unparalleled visibility of US public and private construction spending across all 50 states, as well as more than 400 cities and 3,000 counties. The forecasting service highlights structural trends brought about by the pandemic, as well as government policy, across more than 20 categories of construction activity. In addition, due to the use of projected-forward starts data, the user can see the impact of large projects in specific geographies.

Webinar

Il conflitto Russia-Ucraina: l’impatto sull’economia italiana e dell’eurozona

with Nicola Nobile | Online | March 30, 2022

Il conflitto in Ucraina ha portato ulteriori incertezze sulla ripresa dell’economia che, in uscita dalla crisi causata dal Covid-19, doveva già affrontare i rischi causati dall’inflazione e dall’aumento del prezzo delle commodities. Questi due aspetti sono stati ulteriormente amplificati dall’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte della Russia, che ha immediatamente fatto scattare delle pesanti sanzioni da parte del mondo occidentale.

Event

Global and UK Outlook Conference – Spring 2022

with Oxford Economics | In-Person | March 29, 2022

Webinar

Filling the void: Africa’s role in European energy security

with Callee Davis and Zaynab Mohamed | Online | March 29, 2022

As Western Europe accelerates a structural transition away from Russian energy dependence, Africa will play a salient role in filling this void. In this webinar we explore how a more pressing shift towards renewable energy and a reduction on Russian hydrocarbon dependence will increase demand for African renewable and non-renewable resources. We also look at where political, institutional and governance risks might hinder this transition.

Webinar

Could high inflation finally end the real estate bull run?

with Mark Unsworth and Christopher Babatope | Online | March 25, 2022

Since the Global Financial Crisis real estate returns have remained healthy despite the pandemic, but will high inflation - exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia war – slow the global economy and threaten real estate performance?

Webinar

Macro Strategy – Positioning for late cycle dynamics

with Javier Corominas and Daniel Grosvenor | Online | March 24, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine means the Dollar and other global risk-free assets will continue to be bid for the next few weeks but will ultimately unwind once the funding stress is over in money and FX swap markets. Looking ahead, we are now entering a late cycle environment, and this implies a move to a more positive stance on US duration. We remain overweight non-US equities on the back of a significant valuation and sentiment driven gap that has emerged following the risk-off price action thus far.

Webinar

Global scenarios: The risk outlook post-invasion

with Jamie Thompson and Chris Parfitt | Online | March 21, 2022

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, which has been updated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Webinar

Commodities: The Russian invasion and the supply response

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare and Toby Whittington | Online | March 18, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices rocketing, in some cases to all-time record highs. In this webinar we explore the extent to which commodity prices will remain at elevated levels and discuss any potential supply response from outside Russia.

Webinar

Why global demographics are not inflationary

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | March 17, 2022

Will the ageing of societies soon cause a substantial, structural rise in inflation and interest rates, as argued prominently by economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan? We review their argument and show that it relies on extreme or flawed assumptions that when combined produce a misleading picture. Indeed, our in-depth modelling suggest the opposite: ageing societies will keep inflation and interest rates low for decades.

Webinar

When will Chinese outbound travel return to prominence – and who will benefit?

with Dave Goodger and Michael Shoory | Online | March 16, 2022

Chinese borders remain closed to the majority of inbound and outbound travellers, despite many other borders across the world having re-opened. The restrictions on Chinese outbound travel, in particular, is of importance to the Travel & Tourism sector due to the prominence of China as a source market. Prior to the pandemic, China had grown to become the largest source market for international travel spending and was a major source market for destinations around the globe, especially those elsewhere in Asia-Pacific. This webinar will look at how China’s tighter restrictions may limit the travel recovery for many destinations, when we can expect China to return to its pre-pandemic prominence as a source market, and who will benefit the most once Chinese travellers return. We will also illustrate what would be required for destination recovery from other source markets while Chinese travellers remain absent.

Webinar

Global industry outlook: Increasing supply chain vulnerability amid further disruption

with Jeremy Leonard and Kiki Sondh | Online | March 15, 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflationary pressures and the Omicron variant will affect global industry through financial and supply chain linkages, higher raw material and transport costs and confidence effects. We look at the impact these will have on our global industrial outlook in the near term and the year ahead.

Webinar

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Emerging Markets

with Tatiana Orlova and Gabriel Sterne | Online | March 11, 2022

We focus on elevated levels of risk, a slowing global economy, and via a detailed assessment of the commodities spike on the terms of trade of 44 EMs. We will assess the extent to which asset markets have appropriately factored in the news across EMs.

Webinar

Rising in the East: how global industry is shifting towards Asia Pacific?

with Andy Logan, Jeremy Leonard and Emily Gladstone | Online | March 9, 2022

Global industrial production is forecast to shift towards Asia Pacific over the next couple of decades. But the speed of that transformation is predicted to vary across industrial sectors. The webinar will examine the drivers behind this trend and investigate the extent to which this is due to production shrinking in Europe and North America, or just faster growth in the Asia Pacific region.

Webinar

Russia and Ukraine: the latest developments and their implications for the global economy

with Tatiana Orlova and Innes McFee | Online | March 4, 2022

In this webinar, we examine the latest news on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Western response. We also discuss the likely spill-over effects for global financial and commodity markets, and the implications for food prices.

Webinar

Air travel recovery to resume in 2022 post-Omicron

with Dave Goodger, Tourism Economics, Arnaud Vanolli, IATA and Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA | Online | March 3, 2022

Latest data for 2021 show that recovery on some major international routes was faster than expected towards the end of the year, but before the Omicron wave hit and disrupted activity, with the re-imposition of some travel restrictions.

Webinar

Eurozone: As Covid concerns fade away, war in Ukraine and inflation fears take over

with Angel Talavera and Oliver Rakau | Online | March 2, 2022

As Covid fears dissipate, geopolitical tensions and inflation risks now dominate the outlook. Russian invasion of Ukraine means a longer period of high energy prices and increased volatility, which will hit the European economy and complicate things even further for the ECB as it attempts to start its process of policy normalisation.