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Webinar
Global industry outlook: supply chain bottlenecks cloud near-term prospects, but underlying demand is strong

Online | September 14, 2021

Global industrial activity has recovered strongly from the pandemic thus far. However, the recovery has encountered headwinds from material and component shortages as well as transportation bottlenecks, with several sectors not able to increase production fast enough to accommodate the strong rebound in demand. Downside risks to our forecast have also risen since our previous forecast update.

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Webinar
Frontier markets are still a buy

Online | August 24, 2021

The gradual return to pre-pandemic levels has marked a pause, but we think there is still value in high-yield sovereign bonds. We examine a set of frontier markets which are particularly attractive, including Egypt, Sri Lanka, and Argentina. In Africa, the post-Covid environment has intensified the pressure on public finances; we focus our attention on Ghana and Angola, both countries are facing a defining moment for their economic policies. We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas: APAC - Tuesday 24th August | 10:00 HKT EMEA - Tuesday 24th August | 10:00 BST Americas - Tuesday 24th August | 16:00 EDT

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Webinar
Mid-year update on Canada’s economic outlook: Primed for super-charged growth in H2 and through 2022

Online | August 18, 2021

Topic: Canada is on the verge of a growth spurt as widespread vaccinations permit a full reopening of the economy, pent up demand is released, consumers begin spending their excess savings, and fiscal and monetary stimulus continue in Canada and abroad. All provinces will fully recover by the end of this year, with Western provinces and metros expected to outperform the East after the disruption from the pandemic is overcome. Still, our new North American cities and regions scenario service suggests some downside risks will persist. Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for Americas, EMEA and APAC friendly timezones: Americas - Wednesday 18th August | 11:00 EDT EMEA - Wednesday 18th August | 10:00 BST APAC - Wednesday 18th August | 10:00 HKT

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Webinar
What does peak growth, peak inflation, peak policy support mean for the US economy?

Online | August 12, 2021

Topic: With the US economy likely past peak growth, peak inflation and peak policy support, what should we expect going into 2022? Where are we in the business cycle 15 months after the Covid crisis trough, and what are the risks to the outlook given the accelerating spread of the Delta variant. Please note that we will be holding one webinar each for Americas, EMEA and APAC friendly timezones: Americas - Thursday 12th August | 11:30 EDT EMEA - Friday 13th August | 13:00 BST APAC - Friday 13th August | 10:00 HKT

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Webinar
[Webinar] Remote working one year on and implications for Australian office property markets

Online | August 11, 2021

Australian cities are likely to be facing ongoing or snap lockdowns until the end of year until our vaccination targets are met. But what happens after?There’s still a huge amount of discussion and disagreement about how much remote working will be done in future and what the implications are for CBD office space.In this presentation we discuss the future of remote working in Australia and it’s impact on office markets and answering questions such as: What have we learned about actual change? What can lesson’s can be learned from Melbourne’s experience? If there’s a big negative impact, how is prime property likely to fare vs secondary? Some make the argument that prime assets won’t suffer as much – what does history tell us? And what about the impact of supply?

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Webinar
Model Training Webinar – August 2021

Online | August 8, 2021

9th August 2021 | We invite you to join our training webinar on the Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model. During the one-hour training, we will introduce you to the software’s key facilities for visualising, manipulating and downloading data and illustrate how to perform scenario analysis using the Global Economic Model.

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Webinar
Reasons for cautious optimism as air travel re-starts (Air Passenger Forecast update)

Online | July 28, 2021

Travel remains restricted in many countries around the world, but an increasing number of routes are starting to open up. We will discuss the extent to which an easing of restrictions is likely in the second half of this year and beyond; on which types of route this is most likely; how much this restored capacity will be supported by passenger demand; and major risks to the outlook. Current trends will be described as well as the key drivers of demand for both a short- and longer-run outlook. Major risk factors and reasons for some continued caution in the outlook, including the potential proliferation of new variants, will also be highlighted.

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Webinar
Will the fall out from COVID-19 be positive or negative for the construction sector?

Online | July 28, 2021

We are proud to be launching the first edition of our Global Construction Service, with provides detailed forecasts of the value of construction work done across 10 sectors in 78 countries. Our construction team have over 25 years of experience forecasting activity across the Asia-Pacific region, and we have developed a unique, bespoke methodology that combines bottom-up project information and in-depth knowledge of the sector with top-down models anchored in economic fundamentals.

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Webinar
Zambia’s national elections, a pivotal moment for the country’s economy and democracy

Online | July 27, 2021

The August 12 national elections could mark a key turning point for Zambia’s future. Under President Edgar Lungu’s rule, the business environment has become increasingly hostile, especially for foreign companies seeking to benefit from the country’s copper resources. Additionally, Zambia defaulted on its debt during the coronavirus pandemic and a deal with the IMF would certainly be useful – the election outcome will determine the conditions of any potential deal. Deteriorating economic conditions have left Mr Lungu struggling for political survival ahead of the polls, while his main rival, successful businessman Hakainde Hichilema, has positioned himself as a potential saviour of the economy. Questions about whether the two-horse race will be fair are raising concerns about the future of democracy in Zambia.

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Webinar
Global financial imbalances after the pandemic

Online | July 21, 2021

One of the biggest yet least understood features of the world economy are the huge financial imbalances across countries. Over the past decades, international net foreign assets – foreign assets owned by residents, net of domestic assets owned by foreigners – have exploded, affecting current accounts, exchange rates, interest rates, and more. That’s why it’s paramount for policymakers and market participants to understand where NFAs are headed.

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Webinar
From early to mid-cycle: Time to scale back our reflation trades

Online | July 20, 2021

We discuss the implications of the end of early-cycle dynamics for key asset classes, with a focus on the outlook for global equities, developed market rates and FX. We continue to see higher core government bond yields across the board, but we reduce our equity overweight allocations in anticipation of higher macro volatility ahead.

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Webinar
Asia Pacific cities and regions: consumer spending and office-based employment in 2021 and out to 2035

Online | July 14, 2021

Asia Pacific and many of its cities are doing much to help lead the global recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. In this webinar we will look to see what that means for consumer spending and office-based employment in the region and its cities. We will ask how those factors may change in 2021 and out to 2035. Where will the spending be concentrated? And on what? Where will the new office jobs be? Will more of the region’s big cities come to challenge the likes of New York, London and Paris? And are there any cities and regions to watch?

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Webinar
Reputation and sustainability: Challenges for EM fiscal policies

Online | July 1, 2021

Our analysis will challenge preconceptions on which EM governments can be trusted to pursue sufficient fiscal adjustment. Covid-19 will leave a legacy of higher debt stocks, and announced fiscal adjustment paths vary in ambition. We demonstrate which EMs will suffer most under a global stagflation shock, and reveal which deserve the best and worst reputation for sticking to fiscal targets over the last decade.

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Webinar
The drive towards a greener future: Where does Africa fit in?

Online | June 29, 2021

The recent spike in commodity prices is largely attributable to supply constraints and supply-chain disruptions. Yet, some commodities will be key in the green transition and may thus experience sustained demand growth in the long term. This webinar will focus on these commodities in an African context by showing where they are currently being mined, and we investigate the potential role that the continent may play in the green revolution. We also look at how South Africa has been one of the world’s biggest beneficiaries of the commodity boom, but suggest that its current mineral profile isn’t particularly future-proof.

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Webinar
ETC tourism trends and prospects: 2021 Q2 webinar

Online | June 23, 2021

European Tourism Trends & Prospects is a series of quarterly reports that offer a concise analysis of key economic and tourism trends in Europe and in relevant outbound markets. Quarterly reports are meant to provide the know-how necessary to monitor the short-term development of European tourism.

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Webinar
Eurozone economy ready to take off

Online | June 22, 2021

After a long period of restrictions which sent the eurozone economy into a double-dip recession, the outlook is finally brightening and activity looks ready to take off. An improved medical situation and the acceleration in the vaccination process will allow European economies to reopen, leading to a strong period of growth for the remainder of the year. As the economy recovers, inflation concerns are gradually replacing growth concerns, but we still expect eurozone inflation to remain moderate beyond the temporary rise in prices seen this year.

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Webinar
Commodity prices surge: where are the risks in terms of inflation and supply?

Online | June 17, 2021

Topic: Commodity prices have risen sharply in the first half of this year. How quickly can supply react and how serious is the threat of higher inflation?​ We will be repeating the same webinar to cater for the difference in time zones between APAC, EMEA and the Americas: EMEA - Friday 18th June | 10:00 BST Americas - Friday 18th June | 16:00 EDT APAC - Friday 18th June | 10:00 HKT

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Webinar
Assessing the risk of an inflation regime change

Online | June 16, 2021

Inflation in advanced economies is set to rise this year to the highest rate in a decade. This has sparked fears of a shift to a high inflation regime which could feature inflation persistently above 5% and with very different dynamics. Such a shift would have profound consequences for economies and financial markets. In this webinar, we explore the risks of such an outcome, drawing lessons from past shifts in regime change.

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Webinar
Russia: Persistent price pressures justify monetary tightening

Online | June 15, 2021

In Russia, recent economic indicators corroborate the narrative of a V-shaped recovery. The authorities are concerned about a mismatch between rapidly recovering demand and lagging supply. In May, headline inflation increased to 6.0% y/y, two percentage points above the CBR’s inflation target. In these circumstances, the CBR’s choice to front-load its monetary tightening is understandable. We expect it to remain in hawkish mode until the year ends.

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