China | Growth outlook weakens, despite expected policy easing
We’ve cut our China growth forecast for Q4 to 3.6% y/y from 5%, and for 2022 to 5.4% from 5.8%. This is despite our expectation of a shift in economic policy in Q4 to support growth.
What you will learn from this report:
- While Evergrande’s problems are unlikely to trigger a Lehman moment, they will aggravate the ongoing property sector slowdown.
- Firms in many parts of the country are facing electricity shortages or production cuts, largely caused by strict implementation of climate and safety targets by local governments. We expect the supply side constraints to be eased in coming months. Even so, however, we expect China’s GDP growth will slow significantly in Q4.
- In response to the weakening outlook, we expect policymakers to take additional steps to support growth in the coming months.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Industry Key Themes 2025: Industrial landscape at a critical juncture
Following prolonged weakness in 2022 and 2023, industrial growth is now regaining momentum.
Find Out More
Post
Czech Republic: Near-term recovery, long-term struggle
We believe the Czech Republic will move to the upper one-third of the fastest-growing EU economies in 2025-2026 after lagging its EU peers in the last four years. However, much of this will be catch-up growth, mainly in consumer spending, where a large shortfall remains. Relative to pre-pandemic, the economy will remain in bottom one-third of the EU, behind its CEE peers.
Find Out More