Commodity Key Themes 2025: Another volatile year

The commodity markets are set for significant shifts driven by geopolitical developments, economic policies and global demand dynamics in 2025. In this report, we explore these complex interactions, providing a detailed analysis of the five key events shaping the commodity markets outlook:

• Event 1: Trump 2.0. President Trump’s administration will make major energy policy announcements early next year intending to expand US oil production and boost LNG exports. As such, we think US energy prices will rise temporarily in reaction to the policy shifts. But we do not expect the announcements to change market fundamentals.
• Event 2: US tariffs. The US will impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports by 2026, and China will retaliate, weakening economic growth and commodity demand. The sectoral impact will be more severe, especially for metal-intensive traded goods like automotives.
• Event 3: strong dollar. We expect the strong dollar to weigh on imports of dollar-denominated commodities, and put pressure on prices, with non-energy commodities that will be under particular pressure from the appreciating dollar.
• Event 4: China slowdown. A structural slowdown in China, by far the largest consumer of commodities, will drag on commodity demand next year without further stimulus. Consequently, commodities with high dependence on Chinese demand, such as iron ore, will face price pressure in 2025.
• Event 5: OPEC+ cuts. OPEC+ faces another challenging year as the group sets to unwind production cuts based on its relatively bullish global oil demand compared to market consensus.

Download the full report for an in-depth analysis of the commodity markets in 2025.