Inflation perception will decide close presidential contest

Inflation is the foremost issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election. Our modeling suggests Pennsylvania will be the the state that pushes the eventual presidential winner over the finish line, with voters in that state highly sensitive to inflation.

What you will learn:

• If swing voters fixate on the price level of consumer goods and services, and specifically the cumulative rise in prices during the past four years, former President Donald Trump is projected to win Pennsylvania by more than 90,000 votes and the Electoral College with 297 votes.
• If swing voters have a shorter memory and instead focus on the y/y change in consumer prices, Vice President Kamala Harris is projected to win Pennsylvania by around 70,000 votes and carry the Electoral College with 281 votes.
• Although odds of a Trump victory have surged, we think prediction markets are understating the likelihood of a Trump presidency and a split Congress, with Democrats in control of the House.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.