Initial takeaways from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement

“In two or three years’ time, US imports could fall by around 15% due to discounted reciprocal tariff hikes set to take effect within a week, guided by our severe tariff scenario results. This could reduce global GDP by up to 0.5ppts this year and 1ppt in 2026.” Ben May, Director of Macro Forecasting and Analysis

On its self-styled ‘Liberation Day’, the US administration announced substantial tariffs that, if fully implemented, would go well beyond even our most extreme tariff scenarios and prior expectations.

Download our latest report to find out our initial assessment of the announcement and its implications:

• Taking the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs schedule at face value suggests that, on average, the US effective rate could climb above 25%.
• The implementation of the US ‘Liberation Day’ tariff hikes will have a huge impact on individual sectors and firms and will further dampen sentiment.
• In two or three years time, US imports could fall by around 15% due to discounted reciprocal tariff hikes set to take effect within a week, guided by our severe tariff scenario results. This could reduce global GDP by up to 0.5ppts this year and 1ppt in 2026.
• However, our initial assessment suggests a global recession will likely be avoided.