Consulting Report | 31 Jan 2024
Navigating maritime challenges: forecasts for the UK maritime sector
The marine industry makes a major contribution to the UK economy, supporting both economic activity and employment, and is also economically important for the role it plays in boosting connectivity, bringing trade, tourism, and energy to the UK. In the past couple of years, however. the 1,400 UK firms operating in the UK maritime sector have faced a number of challenges. All have been at the mercy of the Covid-19 lockdowns and the volatility in fuel prices. Furthermore, global container lines have experienced swings in the rates they receive, which will come under pressure in the future due to the increase in capacity. Sanctions and geo-political issues continue to interfere with sea routes. Labour issues and regulatory pressures will complicate operations in future years. Much of the regulatory pressure will focus on the environmental impact of the sector.
Our central forecast is that the UK water transport sector’s production (in real terms) contracted by 8.5% in 2023. Ignoring the Covid-19 pandemic, this would be the sharpest contraction since 2016. This mostly reflects the decline in the value of goods exported out of, and imported into the UK, which are predicted to decline by 4.7% and 7.2% in the year respectively. The rate of growth of the water transport sector’s gross value added is forecast to contract less in 2024, only by 0.4%, and is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2025.The water transport sector’s output is sensitive to cyclical developments. The report explores what will happen to water transports’ gross value added? under two adverse macroeconomic scenarios using Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model. An asset price crash scenario has more negative consequences for water transport sector’s contribution to GDP than a credit crunch.
To download the report, please complete the form below.
The experts behind the research
Our Industry Consulting team are among the world’s leading analysts of a variety of industrial sectors. They combine their expert insight with our state-of-the-art economic models and tools to answer the crucial questions facing our clients.
Andy Logan
Director of Industry Consulting
Read the report
Complete the form below to download the report.
Tags:
Recent related reports
The socioeconomic impact of second-hand clothes in Africa and the EU27+
This report, commissioned by Humana People to People and Sympany+, assesses the socioeconomic impact of the second-hand clothing industry in EU27+ countries and selected African nations, exploring its economic value and employment effects across continents.
Find Out More
Can Indian manufacturing capitalise on US-China tensions?
India has benefited from US trade rerouting away from China since 2018, albeit to a much lesser extent than some of its Asian peers. India's export strengths largely lie in sectors of the 'old economy', where growth potential is limited and competition is fierce. We estimate that the US-China trade war so far has improved India's export prospects only to a limited extent, dashing hopes that an escalation of the conflict could boost the lagging manufacturing sector.
Find Out More
Business Standard: India’s missed trade opportunities as others gain from US-China tensions
India has not been able to attract a notably greater share of global FDI. Some of this is due to political resistance to stronger ties with China, some of it is held back by structural barriers
Find Out More
Beyond trade wars – An assessment of LatAm’s Trump risks
We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a renewed trade war with Mexico.
Find Out More