Russia | Persistent price pressures justify front-loaded hikes
The authorities’ decision to eschew lockdowns in the last 12 months has led to a steady return of mobility and economic activity to pre-pandemic levels. Recent economic indicators corroborate the narrative of a V-shaped recovery.
What you will learn:
- In May, headline inflation increased to 6.0% y/y following a short-lived deceleration in April. We have raised our end-year CPI forecast to 5.5% y/y, which is higher than both the government’s and CBR forecasts.
- Inflationary pressures continue to increase. The CBR has already hiked 75bps since March and brought its policy rate up to 5.0%.
- We believe the CBR has a reason to continue front-loaded monetary tightening. Another 50bp hike seems appropriate at the Friday policy meeting.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Housing affordability lowest in Greek, Danish, and German cities
House prices across Europe have soared over the past decade, especially in cities. During this time, incomes in Europe have not kept pace with house price hikes on average, squeezing the purchasing power of homebuyers in many European cities.
Find Out More
Post
Parsing US federal job cuts by metro
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally, but more significant implications for the Washington, DC metropolitan economy as it accounts for 17% of all non-military federal jobs in the US.
Find Out More