Consulting Report

12 Jul 2024

The Malaria ‘Dividend’: Why investing in malaria elimination creates returns for all

Commissioned by Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK)

The Economic Impact of Malaria: Assessing Progress, Prospects, and Opportunities.

Malaria No More (MNM) United Kingdom (UK) commissioned Oxford Economics Africa to assess the future economic impact of malaria on the countries most exposed to the disease, as well as at the Africa and global levels, while also considering the UK’s relationship with the most affected countries and the benefits arising from localised research and development (R&D) and manufacturing. In doing so, the report (i) unpacks the global burden of malaria; (ii) describes the international fight against malaria by evaluating the progress, funding, and related efforts and gaps to effectively combat the disease; (iii) determines the economic impact of malaria by assessing the projected effects on the gross domestic products (GDP) and international trade patterns of the 13 Focus Countries most exposed to the disease, as well as on Africa and globally; (iv) analyses the UK’s ties with the 13 Focus Countries; and (v) outlines the R&D landscape in Africa, funding for malaria R&D, the potential benefits from more localised R&D.

Globally, more than 69 people were killed by malaria each hour in 2022, of which 75.9% were children under five years of age. This means that one child died from the disease every 68 seconds. Nowhere is the malaria burden more severe than in Africa. Of the 69 global malaria fatalities per hour in 2022, 67 were suffered in Africa, of which 52 were children under the age of five. The 13 Focus Countries selected for this report collectively accounted for 72.5% of worldwide malaria cases and 75.4% of worldwide malaria deaths in 2022. The global fight against malaria has to date fallen short of the measures required to achieve the SDGs by 2030, and international efforts need to be stepped up to eliminate the disease. Investments in malaria prevention and control averaged a mere US$ 3.4bn p.a. between 2020 and 2022, leaving a wide annual funding gap of US$ 3.9bn to combat the disease. In 2022, the world was 55% off track in reducing malaria case incidence and lagged 53% in slashing deaths relative to the global targets to reduce both case incidence and mortality rates by 90% by 2030. US$ 75.9bn will be required to achieve the SDG targets over the next seven years.

This report demonstrates that the net economic benefits far exceed the costs related to achieving the malaria-related SDGs. The potential global economic gains of realising the SDG targets in all malaria-endemic countries would be nearly US$ 42bn larger by the end of this decade, while world GDP can be US$ 142.7bn higher over the 2023 to 2030 period. The majority of these economic benefits would stem from Africa, while the continent’s gain in economic activity would also be US$ 126.9bn larger over the 2023 to 2030 period — equivalent to 6% of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP — and reach US$ 40.7bn in 2030 alone. In consideration of the 13 Focus Countries, real GDP growth will on average be between 0.2 ppt and 0.3 ppt higher p.a. over the 2023 to 2030 period if malaria case incidence is on track to achieve the SDG target relative to the scenario in which current trends persist. Concurrently, the collective GDP of these countries will be US$ 30.7bn larger by 2030 and cumulative economic output US$ 92.1bn higher over the same time frame.

Moreover, aggregate international trade is projected to swell by US$ 80.7bn between 2023 and 2030,of which African countries would contribute 74.4% to potential global trade expansions. US$ 31.2bn or 39.2% of the increase in world trade under the SDG scenario will occur through greater African imports. Total trade among the 13 Focus Countries and the rest of the world is projected to increase by US$ 41.7bn between 2023 and 2030 under the SDG scenario, of which US$ 20.3bn are exports and US$ 21.3bn are imports. The 13 Focus Countries are also likely to experience an increase in exports and imports to the value of US$ 6.2bn and US$ 8.5bn, respectively, with the G7, EU, UAE, and South Korea between 2023 and 2030 should the SDG targets be attained.

The UK is exposed to many of the world’s most malaria-endemic countries, especially through trade, FDI, and travel and tourism linkages. It is therefore important for the country to continue its fight against malaria in its trading and travel partners to bilaterally advance increased and diversified economic growth, development, R&D, localisation, and trade, while reducing fatalities from the
disease. It is similarly vital for private, public, and donor organisations to meaningfully invest in malaria prevention and control measures as a means to improve human capital, productivity, competitiveness, firm profitability, and fixed capital formation as a robust FDI strategy.

Domestic and international efforts need to be increased significantly if malaria is to be eliminated by the end of this decade.

To download the report that has been approved by an expert panel review, please complete the form below.

Deon Fourie

Lead Economist

Jacques Nel

Head: Africa Macro

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