UK | Why strong pay growth isn’t what it seems
UK wages have recently grown at a pace not seen for over a decade. But rather than a sign of nascent inflationary pressure, changes in the makeup of jobs have exaggerated headline pay, and comparisons with a depressed 2020 will compound this over the next few months.
Lower-paid staff have been more likely to lose their jobs during the pandemic, cutting the weight of these jobs in the average pay calculation. And as people on furlough return to work, y/y earnings growth is likely to hit a record high.
What you will learn about:
- Pandemic effects will distort headline pay numbers for some time to come
- The post-Covid world presents upside and downside risks to pay growth.
- The post-Covid world could see some slight reversal of the power imbalance between employers and their employees
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Don’t write the Eurozone consumer off just yet
Eurozone growth in 2025 will rely on consumers. There were positive signs in H2 last year, with consumers starting to deploy their real income gains and the impact of lower rates feeding through. However, we don't think solid H2 outturns signal a sustained increase in momentum. Instead, we expect spending growth to stabilise around the current pace, totalling 1.5% in 2025.
Find Out More
Post
Housing affordability lowest in Greek, Danish, and German cities
House prices across Europe have soared over the past decade, especially in cities. During this time, incomes in Europe have not kept pace with house price hikes on average, squeezing the purchasing power of homebuyers in many European cities.
Find Out More