US Tariff Monitor – Sooner rather than later

President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff on imports from China went into effect on February 4 and the Chinese responded with a series of retaliatory steps.

What you will learn:

• We ran a simulation of the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model that incorporates the additional tariffs on China, and it adds 0.1ppt to 0.2ppts to core inflation by the end of the year. The economic impact will be more noticeable if Trump follows through with some of his other tariff threats.
• The recent developments led us to bring forward the timing of anticipated tariffs in our upcoming February baseline forecast.
• We will update our tariff monitor on a regular basis to track what goods are subject to tariffs, the economic implications, and how the Trump administration’s trade policy is unfolding, relative to the assumptions in the baseline forecast.