A second Trump presidency adds risk to our outlook

Dec 2024 / Jan 2025

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• Our world GDP forecast for the next few years is little changed from a month ago.
• We expect global growth will gain pace from 2.7% this year to 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
• Nonetheless, US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico on his first day in the office adds substantial risk to our global outlook.

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