Tariff developments don’t change the broad growth story

Feb 2025 / Mar 2025

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We’ve only made relatively small downward adjustments to our global GDP growth forecasts for this year and next despite the considerable tariff drama at the start of February.
• We’ve lowered our world GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026.
• We’ve made only small downward revisions for two key reasons.

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