Tourism Forecasts and Scenarios
Credible projections improve decision-making. Oxford’s Tourism Economics team builds custom forecast scenarios for your market strategy, investment, and budget planning decisions.
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Built on a solid foundation
Tourism Economics brings together economic, psychographic, financial, and external factors into our robust modelling process.
Economic fundamentals
Household income, consumer sentiment, corporate profits, savings rates, and other drivers of the travel outlook are drawn from the latest Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook.
Traveller sentiment
Survey data on traveller intentions and attitudes, combined with historic travel patterns, provide a benchmark for the near-term outlook.
Prices and exchange rates
The cost of travel, including energy, food, hotel rates, airfares, and exchange rates inform revenue forecasts
External event factors
Upside examples: new attractions, policies, investments.
Downside examples: geopolitical tensions, health crises, natural disasters.
Tailored to your needs
You define the traveller segments, markets, and scenarios
Segmentation
Identify the focus of the analysis: visitor purpose, day/overnight trips, type of accommodation, spending by category, hotel performance, fiscal and other economic impacts.
Markets
Select any number of destinations for competitive analysis and origins for market opportunity analysis. Based on our global travel datasets covering 185 countries and 300 cities.
Scenarios
Collaborate with our team to define the scenarios that represent relevant potential outcomes in relation to external events, the economy, or policy options.
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Global Key Themes for Travel and Tourism in 2022
Recovery in international travel will gather pace during 2022, but there will be some further reductions in activity early in the year along with clear risks related to the new Omicron variant. Short-haul intra-regional travel is still likely to see fastest recovery.
“The Oxford Economics team carried out our macroeconomic port trade forecast out to 2050. The team was highly capable, worked with us closely, took on board feedback from internal and external stakeholders and we are very confident in the product. The Oxford Economics brand carries credibility in the market.”
“We were drawn to working with Oxford Economics for its solid reputation and the strength of its research, and we’ve been particularly impressed with your ability to present this to governments and the media – it’s the reason we’d look for future opportunities to work together.”
Resources and Events
Research Briefing
Inbound Travel to US in Steep Decline
Research Briefing
US Rolls Up Welcome Mat for International Travel
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Global travel outlook remains strong despite headwinds
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Resilient global tourism outlook despite downturn in sentiment
Webinar
Asia reacts to US tariffs
Webinar
トランプ関税下の世界経済：経済モデルを用いたシナリオ分析
Webinar
ETC – European tourism trends and prospects: Q1 2025
Webinar
Trump 2.0: Global Trade, Tariffs & Economic Shifts
Tourism effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine
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