Megatrends Scenarios

Navigate uncertainty and understand key risks to the global economy in the long term

Overview

Megatrends Scenarios is a powerful tool for navigating uncertainty, enhancing risk management and positioning for long-term success.

By understanding the key issues that will affect the economy and markets —such as technological advances, demographic shifts, geopolitical tensions, deglobalisation, and institutional and policy transformations, you can make more informed decisions. The service enables you to mitigate risks, adapt to shifting conditions and capitalise on new opportunities that align with evolving economic and social trends.

Megatrends

Megatrends Scenarios quantifies the macroeconomic impacts a range of economic scenarios against Oxford Economics’ own baseline. The scenarios help businesses understand the long-term effects on the business environment of key structural megatrends.

We use our Global Economic Model to generate these scenarios. This provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario analysis, both over the near term and the longer term.

Globalisation & Geopolitics

Globalisation drives economic growth through trade and investment, but rising geopolitical tensions and trade wars create volatility. Fragmented supply chains and shifting alliances are forcing businesses and policymakers to adapt to a more competitive global economy.

Institutions & Policy

Effective institutions and policies are essential for economic stability, managing inflation, and fostering growth. Governments must adapt fiscal and regulatory frameworks to address inequality, external shocks, and long-term sustainability.

Demographics

Aging populations in developed economies strain public finances, while younger populations in emerging markets drive workforce growth and consumption. These shifts impact productivity, labor markets, and economic inequality, requiring strategic policy responses.

Technology

Technological progress boosts productivity and lowers costs but disrupts industries and labor markets. Policymakers must balance economic gains from innovation with investments in upskilling and managing job displacement.

Climate

Climate change, a pervasive force influencing the economy, environment and investment strategies. To address this critical issue, we offer the Global Climate Service, providing tailored insights to guide your strategic responses in an ever-changing world.

Unlock uncertainty and understand key risks to the global economy in the long term

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Benefits

Strategic Development – Explore possible futures and create strategies tailored to your needs, ensuring resilience across multiple scenarios so you’re prepared for any potential outcomes or uncertainties.
Contingency Planning – Gain valuable insights into long-term risks, empowering you to create effective contingency plans and reduce the impact of adverse events on your business.
Market Opportunities – Discover growth opportunities for expansion or diversification, enabling you to stay ahead by capturing emerging market opportunities.

What’s included?

Comprehensive actionable insights with forecasts to 2050 for 85 countries

Dashboard

Visualise the key features of our different scenarios, including impacts on GDP, demographics, prices & wages, productivity, interest rates and asset returns.

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Databank

Quantify risks to the global economy across a wide range of macroeconomic and financial indicators, giving you the insights needed to make informed decisions.

Series indicators include:

GDP & subcomponents
Unemployment rate (%)
Employment
Inflation
Interest rates – both short-term and long-term
Current account
Government budget balances
Exchange rates for the US dollar, sterling and the euro
Stock market indices & many more..

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Report

Examine cross-country differences, the baseline forecast, and scenario developments, supported by visualizations for clear insights into the headline results.

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Global Economic Model

Our economic model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios, addressing questions on a wide range of economic topics, such as the impact of oil price changes or the effects of slower growth in a major economy.

Clients who have access to the Global Economic Model 25 Year can access the Megatrends database files and customise scenarios their specific needs.

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Request a demo

Complete the form and we will contact you to set up your free trial. Please note that trials are only available for qualified users.

We are committed to protecting your right to privacy and ensuring the privacy and security of your personal information. We will not share your personal information with other individuals or organisations without your permission.

Brochure

Megatrends Scenarios Services

A complete service to provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario analysis, both over the near term and the longer term.

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