TradePrism

Tariff Monitor: Trump hits pause on Canada and Mexico

On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be subject to 10% tariffs, and an additional 10% across-the-board tariff on China.

Reciprocal tariffs another tool to extract policy concessions

Trade war scenario threatens US travel sector

Research Briefing TradePrism International travel to the US is expected to decline.

Ignore US gold imports, net trade is weak but not disastrous

The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new and potential tariffs from the Trump administration.

Steady, Yet Slow: How Oxford Economics Sees Global Economic Growth in 2025

Oxford Economics set the stage for the year ahead, at our second Global Economic Outlook Conference, in London on Wednesday, 5 February.

The risks to Asia from Trump’s tariff plans so far

We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal tariffs has raised the odds that of the rest of Asia will also be slapped with higher tariffs.

European pharma, high-tech, and machinery most exposed to US trade war

European pharmaceuticals, machinery, and high-tech goods are heavily exported to the US, making them vulnerable to across-the-board US tariffs. However, European pharmaceuticals make up a sizeable share of total US consumption of this product, so the imposition of tariffs on the sector would be harmful to US households and businesses.

Calgary, Saint John, and Windsor are the Canadian metros most vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs

Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less competitive.

Trump’s tariffs pose uneven subnational risks across the EU

Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump in the opening months of 2025, and the president has indicated that both blanket and sector-specific levies on EU good exports could be imposed within the coming weeks.

Tariffs hurt, even if some are just threats

Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements by the US, followed in some cases by swift postponements, are already increasing trade uncertainty and making it less likely that companies will invest.

No reprieve on the US tariff front

The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.

Lower-income states and metros face the greatest burden from impending tariffs

Tariffs act as a regressive tax on households as they are applied to imported goods, many of which fall into the category of non-discretionary spending on such things as clothing, food, and energy—necessities most households cannot go without.

Autos and machineries in Japan are most vulnerable to US tariffs

Our analysis of industry and trade structure between the US and Japan reveals the auto and non-electrical machinery sectors are most vulnerable to tariffs by the US. For both sectors, the US accounts for a sizeable share of total exports as well as gross output, and particularly so for auto.

Eurozone is likely next in the tariff war

We have incorporated a 10% blanket tariff by the US and immediate retaliation by the EU in our forecast for Eurozone GDP growth, which is now 0.3ppts lower for 2025 and 2026.

Tariff developments don’t change the broad growth story

As Donald Trump's inauguration as US president approaches, there has been little additional clarity regarding the exact nature of the policies he will pursue in office.

Chinese policy is unlikely to shift due to announced tariffs

US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion of stronger language around retaliation in policy documents still add significant uncertainty to our forecasts.

US Tariff Monitor – Sooner rather than later

President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff on imports from China went into effect on February 4 and the Chinese responded with a series of retaliatory steps.