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Global Trade, Tariffs & Supply Chain Analysis

From the Supreme Court tariff ruling to a closed Strait of Hormuz, track how US tariffs, shipping costs, and supply chains are being redrawn in real time.

Global trade just took three hits at once. See the data.

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Overview Americas EMEA APAC What’s next How we help Free trial Insights in your inbox

Global trade and tariffs are absorbing simultaneous, compounding shocks. The Strait of Hormuz is shut, cutting off over 20% of global energy trade. The Supreme Court tariff ruling replaced country-specific US tariffs with a blanket levy. And the EU-India deal is opening new corridors even as US protectionism deepens. Risks are cascading through shipping costs, supply chains and consumer demand worldwide. Download the report for the full picture → 

Powered by our Global Economic Model and a team of over 400 economists and analysts, we provide timely, number-driven insights into trade and tariffs so you can cut through the noise and make decisions with confidence. 

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Global economy and supply chains

Three shocks. One seismic shift in global trade and tariffs. 

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Supreme Court tariff ruling has rewritten the tariff war playbook. The EU-India deal is redrawing trade corridors. Shipping costs, supply chains and goods trade growth of just 2.3% in 2026 are all under pressure. The full story is in the numbers. →

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    Americas

    The Supreme Court tariff ruling changed everything – but the clock is already ticking. 

    The Supreme Court tariff ruling dropped US tariffs from 12.7% to 8.3% overnight, then a new blanket rate pushed them back to 10.7%. US import volumes are now forecast to fall just 2.7% in 2026. But Section 122 expires July 24, and the tariff war is far from over. See where it goes from here. →

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      EMEA

      While the US builds walls, the EU is building corridors. 

      Europe faces the Middle East shock on two fronts: disrupted energy trade and supply chains rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated shipping costs are feeding directly into import prices. Yet Europe is responding with its most ambitious trade and tariffs agenda in a generation, a direct counterweight to rising US tariffs and the Supreme Court tariff ruling. The EU-India FTA. EU-Mercosur. The opportunity for multinationals to rethink supply chain management has never been clearer. Get the full analysis. →

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        APAC

        Asia absorbs the biggest hit – and books some of the biggest gains. 

        Asia faces the biggest energy trade disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, yet it books the biggest gains from the Supreme Court tariff ruling. China’s US exports forecast to grow 4.4% in 2027. India’s story remains complex. Shipping costs and supply chain reconfiguration are already underway across the region. There’s more beneath the surface. →

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          What’s next?

          The global economy is more interconnected than ever before, yet it faces unprecedented disruption and volatility. The complications in trade and tariffs extend beyond bilateral relationships, impacting other regions, sectors, supply chains, and capital flows and more. Understanding these dynamics requires a truly global perspective, and that’s where Oxford Economics can assist you.

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          How we help

          Leveraging our Global Economic Model, which links major economies across the world via trade, capital flows, exchange rates and more, we provide the most integrated views and forecasts available. Our approach best reflects the interconnected nature of the global economy, positioning us to offer accurate, robust and impartial insights into how trade and tariff developments impact your business.

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          • Keep up with developing trade tensions, supply chain issues, interest rate changes and FX fluctuations with our timely analysis of the macroeconomic, sector and city outlooks.
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            Global trade and tariffs are being reshaped by forces beyond the tariff war. From the Supreme Court tariff ruling to energy trade disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, risks cascade through supply chains, shipping costs and consumer demand worldwide.

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